First up, I hope you've all heard the wonderful news and seen the new scans on Gabby's home page!

Below is my contribution (apart from the obvious) to this great, on-going process, the girthogram. The girthogram charts the growth of Gabby's girth, from the estimated conception date (~14 January) to the present time. The estimated date of birth is 22 October.

Extra, extra: as of the midwife's visit on 28 June, it has been suggested that the baby could be due up to three weeks before the previously estimated date, i.e. at the start of October.

It's a boy! What is more, as of the third midwife's visit and the third scan, the estimated date of birth is back on schedule for the 21 October...

Measurements of girth are acquired through use of a girthometer, though with a somewhat haphazard sampling interval due to conference attendence, away days, forgetfulness, etc. To date, these conferences have included MIST in Ambleside and EGS in The Hague.

An approximate estimate of girth at birth is made by extrapolating the current rate of growth as determined by a least squares fit to the last ten girth measurements. As more girth measurements are collected and the functional form of the girth curve becomes apparent, a more sophisticated curve fitting technique will be implemented.

Having said that, it has become clear that since the breakpoint in the girth curve in early March, a linear regression is a good first-order fit to the measurements. No exponential growth (luckily for Gabby!) or asymptotic approach to a final birth girth here...

Watch this space for developments!

Update: Its almost a week now since the estimated date of birth, and nothing has emerged as yet. We have tried everything, including hot curries and midnight trips to the swings, roundabouts and see-saws, but to no avail...


Felix is with us at last. He was born at 20:07 on 4 Nov 1999, weighing in at 9lb and 3.5oz (4.2 kg).

Mother and child are doing very nicely, thank you!

More pictures. Look out for the pictorial family tree coming soon... (sneak preview)

Birth sweep-stake

So, the birth is coming up soon! To increase the frisson surrounding this already charged event, we are holding a sweep-stake on the date of birth.

Estimated date of birth is 22 October, but we're running up to 5 November when the baby would be 2 weeks overdue and the birth will be induced (either at the hospital or by a loud fire-work...).

Entrance fee is 50p. Let me know if you're interested. Current ticket holders are as follows:
Tue, 5 Oct
Wed, 6 Oct
Thu, 7 Oct
Fri, 8 Oct
Sat, 9 Oct
Sun, 10 Oct
Mon, 11 Oct
Tue, 12 Oct
Wed, 13 Oct
Thu, 14 Oct
Fri, 15 Oct
Emma Bunce
Mark Lester
Tim Yeoman
Adrian Grocott
Fiona Provan
Chris Thomas
Deborah Bradshaw
Corinne Milan (Grandma)
Helena Wright
Darren Wright
Sat, 16 Oct
Sun, 17 Oct
Mon, 18 Oct
Tue, 19 Oct
Wed, 20 Oct
Thu, 21 Oct
Fri, 22 Oct
Sat, 23 Oct
Sun, 24 Oct
Mon, 25 Oct
Tue, 26 Oct
Tudor Jones
Emma Woodfield
Jim Wild
Eric Bradshaw
Mark Lester
Stan Cowley
Peter Chapman
Alison Wesley
Jackie Davies
Peter Chapman
Emma Woodfield
Wed, 27 Oct
Thu, 28 Oct
Fri, 29 Oct
Sat, 30 Oct
Sun, 31 Oct
Mon, 1 Nov
Tue, 2 Nov
Wed, 3 Nov
Thu, 4 Nov
Fri, 5 Nov +
Rob & Kay
Michael Milan (Gramps)
Jonny Rae
Jim Wild
Jonny Rae
Colette Boeglé
Stan Cowley
Emma Bunce
Adrian Grocott
Sella Provan

Some people have expressed concern regarding the taste or political correctness of this venture. May I emphasise that no distress - emotional or physical - has been experienced by the mother-to-be during the construction of this web-site. Thank-you.

Congratulations to Adrian - your ill-gotten gains will wing their way to you in the near future.

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